Saturday, February 28, 2009

This is Getting Monotonous

Three games and 3 Non-Roster pitcher losses. The good news of course, is that the roster pitchers are doing pretty well. Yesterday they did not have any roster starting pitchers pitch, only Romero and Madson pitched. Romero had a bit of a control problem with 3 walks and a run in 2 innings. Madson had a scoreless inning pitched. To belabor the point Roster pitchers are pitching at a 1.80 ERA and the Non-roster pitchers are pitching at a 13.20 ERA. Nuf said. Hitting wise it was ugly again. Shane had a couple of hits and Ibanez knocked in a run. I'm guessing they will put a better game together on Saturday since they are playing the American league champs Tampa-Bay and Pat Burrell. I hear the place is sold out for the game.

Friday, February 27, 2009

Just Another Game

Seems the second game ended just like the first game, a 6-2 loss. As I mentioned yesterday, the important thing is the major league roster pitchers and how they did.
Carassco and Happ both pitched 2 innings each and yeilded no runs. Carassco also had 3 strikeouts. Very good pitching lines for the roster players. Hitting wize it was a pretty weak effort as Rollins, Donald, and Howard all went 0-3.
All-in-all it is going ok so far, the pitchers are doing well and the hitters are a little weak. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Finaly a Game to Talk About

Well, the first spring training game. At least we have something to talk about, even if it doesn't matter. My theory on spring training games is to look at the starting pitchers line and not much else matters. Obviously over the bulk of the spring training games, you want to see the starting 8 hit well, but game to game it does not make a big difference. The starters are in the games for only 2-3 at bats. In yesterdays game Moyer pitched 2 innings with no runs - excelent. Blanton pitched 1 inning with 1 run - not great. The rest of the relievers gave up the game and that is the essence of spring games, these players will not be on the 25 man roster, and thus do not count. Not much news from the hitters, Ibanez and Mayberry had rbi's and Jenkins was 1 for 1. You may notice over the season, I like to blame the losses on particular players or managers, or coaches. I am thinking of keeping a count of those people responsible for losses during the regular season. As hard as it is to say this after a world series win, I always believed Charlie Manual was responsible for 10 losses a year. His third base coaches were also responsible for many losses over the last few years. Chalk this loss up to non-roster bullpen players.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Finally 2008 Relievers vs. Career



Checking the proposed 2009 relievers vs. their Career averages shows the following:
NameERAWinsLossesSaves
Lidge-20081.952041
Career3.155431
Madson-20083.05421
Career4.20641
Durbin-20082.87541
Career5.29771
Romero-20082.75551
Career4.14321
Condrey-20083.26341
Career4.32221
Eyre-20084.21500
Career3.50220
Totals-20083.01211745
Career4.12252135

WOW!
This is worse than I expected. The entire bullpen over-achieved in 2008. I guess that is why they were the best bull pen in the majors last year. It seems they have no place to go - but down :-(

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Bench Players

Lets take a quick look at the bench players 2008 season vs. Career averages - I don't expect a revelation from their numbers, but we will see.

Dobbs Avg. HR's Rbis
2008 .301 9 40
Career .266 5 40

Bruntlett
2008 .217 2 15
Career .246 3 17

Jenkins
2008 .246 9 29
Career .277 13 42

Stairs
2008 .252 13 49
Career .266 17 61

Paulino
2008 .212 2 18
Career .286 5 18

Coste
2008 .263 9 36
Career .309 10 48

Lets put all the numbers together
Totals
2008 .249 44 185
Career .275 53 226

WOW!
I am shocked, I thought with Dobbs great year, The bench would be worse in 2009. It seems the other 5 players are all under their career averages, and we can expect better in 2009. Looking forward to breaking down the bullpen next (there is no way they can be better in 2009 - Right?)

Friday, February 20, 2009

Pitchers - 2008 vs. Average

Ok
After seeing the 8 position players were significantly below their career averages as a group, it is time to look at the Starting 5 pitchers. For this analysis I will actually do 6 pitchers since we are not sure yet if Happ or Park will win the 5th spot.

Hamels Wins Losses Percent Era
2008 14 10 .583 3.09
Career 24 13 .649 3.43

Meyers
2008 10 13 .435 4.55
Average 59 47 .557 4.37

Moyer
2008 16 7 .696 3.71
Average 56 60 .483 4.46

Blanton
2008 9 12 .429 4.68
Average 42 34 .553 4.18

Park
2008 4 4 .435 3.40
Average 23 22 .511 5.33

Happ
2008 1 1 .500 4.55
No previous stats

So let's combine them
2008 54 47 .535 4.00
Average 205 177 .537 4.35

Conclusion
It seems the Starting Pitching staff was pretty much right in line with their Career(Last 5 years) averages. The winning percentage was slightly under, but the ERA was also under.
We will need a repeat performance in 2009 to make another run.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Phillies - 2008 vs. Average

I wanted to do a quick comparison of the 2008 performances vs. the players career averages. For the most part, I will be considering the last 5 years as the averages, since it does not make sense to compare say Jamie Moyer to his youthful numbers. Today I will be starting with the 8 position players.

Howard Avg. HR rbi
2008 .251 48 146
Avg .279 51 144

Utley
2008 .292 33 104
Avg .306 29 103

Rollins
2008 .277 11 59
Avg .277 18 73

Feliz
2008 .249 14 58
Avg .256 21 84

Ibanez
2008 .293 23 110
Avg .290 22 95

Victorino
2008 .293 14 58
Avg .284 9 46

Werth
2008 .273 24 67
Avg .263 20 67

Ruiz
2008 .219 4 31
Avg .260 6 59

Lots of numbers, but I think it is striking that the starting 8 were significantly below their season averages. Let's combine the numbers.

2008 .268 21 79
Avg .277 22 93

That is 8 players under average by an average of 10 points.
Under average by an average of 14 rbi's per player.
HR's over by 1 per player.
I say that is significant, this starting 8 will do better in 2009. Whoo Hoo!!

Monday, February 16, 2009

Repeat or not to Repeat

Everything I read this past weekend was about how hard it is to repeat as world champions in baseball. Granted it hasn't been done very often, and for the most part you have to get lucky(read healthy) 2 years in a row to even get qualified for the playoffs. The ones that made me laugh the most were the articles saying that the Phillies in the past never re-appeared in the World Series so that is the reason they can't repeat this year.
The fact that we are hearing about players getting into shape and losing weight and working on their defense, tells me all I need to know. If this team stays away from injuries, it will qualify for the playoffs. Once you get to the playoffs it is just a crap shoot. You have to get lucky, or have the right match ups, or have a clutch play here or there to win the Series.
We shall see, they did it last year, here is hoping for a repeat!!

Saturday, February 14, 2009

I Hate to be Pessimistic

It seems all the writers and radio people (and most of my blogs) are all optimistic outlooks for the Phillies. I suppose that is every ones outlook as spring is right around the corner and every ones team is going to win the world series this coming year. I wanted to take a look at what could throw a "Fly in the ointment" with the Phillies season this year. I guess the biggest one outside the team, would be the Mets and Braves or some other wildcard team just being better than the Phils. I will look internal to the team and give a short quip on my projected 25 players.

Howard - Complacent with his new contract? Not being driven by his year to year contract.
Utley - Having a hard time coming back from his surgery.
Rollins - Same down season as last year
Feliz - Having a hard time coming back from his surgery.
Ibanez - Getting older - could go down hill.
Victorino - Maybe he has had his career year
Werthe - Maybe he has had his career year.
Ruiz - Same down season as last year.
Hamels - Looses his focus after MVP showings last year.
Myers - Same minor league season as last year
Moyer - Age, Age, Age
Blanton - Career under-performer
Park - Can you spell HR's in citizen park.
Happ - Hapless sophomore season
Condrey - Nuf said
Romero - Trouble coming back mid season.
Durbin - Has to be worse than last year
Eyre - Journeyman
Madson - Returns to form
Lidge - Has to go backwards
Dobbs - Most likely worse than last year
Bruntlett - Journeyman
Jenkins - This is a hard one - He almost has to get better.
Paulino - Hitting is worse than Coste
Coste or Stairs - Journeyman

So, you can see there are reason the Phils could go down hill this season. I have not mentioned yet the biggest reason they could run into trouble, and that is injuries. This team got pretty lucky last year with no major injuries, but with players like Victorino, Werth and Utley there is a good chance of it happening. They also have the Fragile Hamels and the old Moyer.
Well, I am glad I got the negative out of my system. Let's start SPRING TRAINING!!

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Remaining Roster Spots

Today let's look at the spots up for grabs on the Phillies 25 man roster.
Three areas are really in doubt on the team - since the 8 starters are set.
Howard, Utley, Rollins, Feliz, Ibanez, Victorino, Werth, and Ruiz

Bench
Assuming 12 pitchers, that leaves room for 5 benchplayers
It is a little clouded with the Utley injury, but I will assume he is healthy
Names in contention and comments
Dobbs - Pinch hitter extraordinaire - He is a lock
Bruntlett - Middle infield backup - He is a lock
Stairs -Late inning HR Threat
Jenkins - Higher salary - I think there is a possibility of a trade here
Paulino -They traded to make him the backup - He is a lock
Coste -Man on the fence - I hope they keep him as the Righty off the bench
If Jenkins can be traded, we have the 5 bench players

5th Starter
They say it is a four-way race for the 5th starter, I am more convinced it is a 2-way race assuming someone does not go crazy in Spring training.
Kendrick - I think they lost confidence in him - trade bait
Corasco - Already heard they want him in triple A - He will be the backup for injury
Happ - Good performances last year gives him a good shot
Park - They signed him saying he could be a starter - I'm scared of the HR's he could give
So I feel it is between Happ and Park the loser going to the bullpen

Bullpen
With twelve spots on the pitching staff, that leaves 7 bullpen spots.
Lidge - I guess we can keep him on the roster :-)
Madson - Started working real well as the set-up man late in the season
Durbin - Did well as the set-up man until they wore him out
Eyre - Did well at end of the season - should help Romero
Park or Happ (Loser of the starting job)
Condrey - Long man
Romero - Suspended for 50 games - they need to find a lefty replacement for him
Happ will help if he is in the pen, They are still looking for a free agent

It is pretty nice, that the three remaining roster spots are really not critical. I guess Amaro did a pretty good job. Let's get the season going!!

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Are the Mets Better?

Based on yesterdays blog, I am assuming the Phillies have improved from 2008 to 2009. Taking a look at the Mets, it seems they have done most of their work in the bull pen which anybody could have predicted. It was a shame to see some of the Mets middle relief and closer leave the team as that is where the Phils did the most damage. I can't count the number of games Santana left in the 7-8th innings winning the game only to see the Phils come back and win in the 8th or later. Now the Mets bring in a new staff of middle relievers and K-Rod to close the game.

In my opinion the Mets will be much improved, which will make the Phils come from behind in the standings again. Hopefully the Mets can choke again and let the Phils win it. I feel K-rod is going downhill, it seemed apparent last year, as his velocity was steadily lower at the end of the year. Maybe he was just getting tired from so many appearances, but if he does that against the Phils, they will tattoo him. Here is hoping for a great division race.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Better Team / Worse Team than 2008?

Today I want to pursue if the 2009 collection of players can be better than the 2008 version. While it is insane to say the Phillies can do better than win the World Series championship, it is also said that you can't stand pat and hope to win it again. Improvement is a must, as all the other teams hope to be improved. Amaro has done a good job of bringing most of the team back, with a few changes here and there. Let's take a look at a guess for who can be improved over 2008 and who may go backwards. My Opinions of course:
Injuries
Utley - While he had a great start - his second half was below par (Will surgery fix him?)
Feliz - Thinking his injuries kept him from achieving his career averages (Surgery)
Bottom line here is improvement from these 2 players
Howard, Rollins and Ruiz
Howard - I think Howard will do the same or do better than last year.
The real improvement may come from a more consistent 1st half and his defense.
Rollins - Had a sub-par year last year - expect improvement.
Ruiz - Had a sub-par year last year - expect improvement

We now reviewed the 5 infielders and ALL 5 have an expectation for improvement - WOW!

Outfield
Victorino and Worth - I don't know here, They could be worse, better, or the same.
There is not enough history to be sure.
With these 2 players I feel there is a great potential for an Injury.
Ibanez - Great debate here - Left vs. Right, Older vs. younger, Consistent vs. streaky
I looked over the stats for the last 3 seasons, and Ibanez has better numbers.
But he also played more innings since Burrell was pulled so often.
I am considering this a push - With again a potential for injury
Bottom-Line: Outfield is a mystery for Better-or-Worse, but they better have good backups.

Pitching
Hamels - While he had a good year - he did not have a great record (14-10)
My guess - His record will improve, but that just means less wins for the bullpen
Meyers - Well he can certainly improve his first half, and now he can hit :-) (10-13)
Moyer - I am afraid there will be a slip here (16-7)
Blanton - Will he be better than Kyle Kendrick(11-9) was? (9-12)Total (4-0)Phils - Yes
5th starter - Will he be better the Adam Eaton - Nuf said

Bench
Bench is undefined at this point - but expect it to be the same

Bull Pen
Here is a place where the team could slip a bit.
Players like Durbin and Lidge may well come back to the pack.
Oh the other hand if Madson can repeat his late season magic - he will be better
Happ or Park will also be a welcome addition over the Gordon/Seanez combo last year
The lefty's and Condrey will be the same I guess


So what do we conclude
Infielders - all 5 have a possibility of being better
Outfielders - I feel all 3 could be a push
Starters - Combining them may be the same or a game or 2 better
Bench - Push
Bullpen - Good chance of going down hill

Seems to me the team has the potential to be better than 2008, if they can stay away from injuries like they did last year. There were a few 15 day DL visits (Lidge, Rollins, Victorino, Werth, Feliz) but for the most part they were major-injury free.

Miscellany

Well - Howard signed. Three years at 54 Million. My opinion is that while it may have been a good monetary deal for the Phils. - they did not gain anything, since they had him wrapped up for 3 years anyway. Maybe you could say they don't have to blast their player in the arbitration process. Maybe you could say Howard will be more relaxed to start the season, instead of resentful.
On the other hand - Howard does not have to prove himself each season and may have a letdown over the next two seasons, before he turns it on in season 3.

In other news - I glad to hear Howard has been down in Florida working hard on his defense. Apparently, the new Phillies 3rd base coach, Sam Perlozzo has re-worked Howards mechanics and throwing motion to second base. I applaud this, both from the Phillies perspective and especially from Howards want to get better. My only issue is - you must have any new mechanics repeated over-and-over and especially in game action. I hope he gets the reps to make it work.

The right-handed bench bat is still up in the air, and Amaro is on the record saying no one will be hired before spring training. I am guessing they will pick someone up in the middle of spring training when they get desperate for a job, and sign cheaper.

Friday, February 6, 2009

Truck Day

Who would have thought that Baseball teams can make such a big deal of loading up trucks and starting the trek to their spring training fields. I guess it comes from the old saying any publicity is good publicity.
The Phillies have 15 cases of gum and 12 cases of sunflower seeds (No mention of chewing tobacco) :-)
300 helmets - Now why do they need 300 helmets for 63 players, misc catchers, and coaches?
600 Hats and Pants - I guess this is Home, Away, and I guess their St. Patty's Uni's
15,000 Baseballs - WOW! - Can't image needing that many.
I heard the equipment Manager on the radio this morning, for sure this is the only day he can be important enough to be a radio interview. He mentioned they have the equipment and it does no good being in Philadelphia, so why not take it with you.
Well - This whole thing is making me anxious for the season to start.
Gee - Maybe that is the reason for truck day huh?

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Howard Arbitration

Think about it!
I just read an article on the Ryan Howard arbitration coming up next week. Can you imagine going to court and having your deficiencies spelled out in front of you?
Batting average dropping from .313 to .258 to .251
OPS dropping from 1.084 to .976 to .882
Struck out almost 200 times in each of the last 2 seasons
His defense is getting worse each season with a league worst .988 fielding percentage last year.
(and that does not take into account the number of times he refused to throw to second)

On the positive side
His 48 home runs led the league
146 rbis also led all players
Those are two pretty important categories for a power hitter.

Ryan made 10 Mil last year
He is asking for 18 Mil this season
The Phillies are offering 14 Mil

Albert Pujols will be making 14.2 mil in 2009 and he has always been the player that everyone compares Howard to each year. Based on that, it seems the Phils number is in the right range, since Pujols won the MVP last year and Ryan was second. I originally thought Howard would win the arbitration, but now it looks like the Phils have a chance. What do you think ?

Where do I Start

This is my first post to my new Blog. I am not a wordsmith, I just have a passion for Baseball. Living in the Philly suburbs, I of course migrated to the Phils as my team. I was long-suffering as you all were before this past season and what a pleasure it was to see them win it all. I will admit, I was not a big Charlie fan, but it brought tears to my eyes to see him win it and seeing him overwhelmed and enjoy the subsequent parade.
Anyway, I hope to post on timely news/rumor topics as well as picking random topics on slow news days. I hope you enjoy the subjects and will post meaningful comments where a dialog can take place. Thanks for Reading.