I'm Back

So - The beginning of the season was real "Up-and-Down".

The starting pitching has been awful (8.75 ERA) and the bats after the first couple games have come alive. One run in the first 2 games - says it all. Since then they have sored 39 runs in 5 games (Almost 8 runs a game)

The Bullpen is doing OK with a 3.81 ERA. They are keeping the team in the games after the starters blow it, and the hitters pick up their steam in the later innings.

Forecast: Blanton will do well tonight, Hopefully Hamels will pick it up.

Where is Rollins? - He did so well in the WBC.

I like to play the Blame game and here are my results so far for the 3 losses.

1st game = Lineup

2nd game - Lineup

3rd loss - Hamels

HARRY!! RIP! We will miss you.

Time To Roll

Well the roster is set, one more exhibition to play. It will be interesting to see how Hamels does in today's game. He is really the only question mark going into the season.
I am off on a 1 week vacation to Arizona. Terrible timing with Villanova in the final 4 and the Phils opener. I don't know how many posts I will be able to make over the next week, I guess the hotel will have service - I will see.
Go get em' Cats and Phils!!

Big News

Well - it all fell into place yesterday, as Jenkins was released, Meyers was named opening day starter and Park was given the 5th starter assignment. Tough day for Jenkins and Happ, but they will survive. Someone will pick up Jenkins for the lousy 400,000 dollars it will cost them. Happ will probably pitch out of the pen I am hearing, and if Park fails a couple times Happ will be the guy. I heard Happ was kind of violent, throwing things and banging walls etc...
The other bit of news was that the Phils are interested in Shefield and/or Andruw Jones for the right-handed pop off the bench. I am not really interested in either one, since Shefield is a complainer and Jones is done. Both of them may have drank too much bug Juice.
The last couple roster spots will be interesting to see - whom they choose (See my last post)

Roster is Close

Now that Corrasco and Mayberry have been sent to the minor league complex, the roster is pretty much set,
As I said earlier, they would pretty much go with the same bench as last year. Unless they trade Stairs or Jenkins, it will be Coste, Dobbs, Bruntlett, Stairs, and Jenkins.
Starting pitcher should be Park, he has earned it and deserves the shot. Happ will go to the pen or even be sent back to AAA.

I think relief may be the only surprise. Again, thinking Happ may go to the minors, they may keep Majewski on the roster. It was interesting to see Mosebach not sent away - He is a rule 5 - which needs to stay on the roster all year or be offered back to his original team. I hear he has a High-Speed fastball.

Interesting!!

Stuff

Nice to see Rollins play so well in the WBC over the last couple of weeks. He topped it off by going 4 for 4 in the loss to Japan.

Nice to see Utley playing and hitting a home run.

The Drama of Kendrick is over and now it is down to 3 pitchers for the 5th spot.

Hamels pitched 3 and change innings in a minor league game - that is a good sign.

Update on 3 Open Positions

Not much has changed in the battle for the open roster spots.

5th Starter
Looks like it is down to Happ and Park. Park has had some great outings, and I hear he has learned an excellent changeup from Jamie Moyer. As I said before It looks like Park gets the job and Happ becomes the much needed lefty in the Pen until Romero gets back from suspension.

Bench Players
Looks like Coste will be gone. After coming back from injury, he has done nothing and is 0-8 for the spring. It is kind of looking like the same 5 coming back other than Coste. Lefties, Stairs, Dobbs, and Jenkens. Righties Paulino and Bruntlett.

Bull Pen - Lidge, Durbin, Madson, Eyre, Condrey
As stated above I feel Happ will take one of the 2 remaining spots
I am thinking it will be Koplove or Majewski to take the last spot.

Thoughts Big and Small

Why the mystery with Chase Utley?
He played in a Minor league game, and then Charlie said not again till Monday.
He played again on Sunday going 0-2, why the mystery?

5th Starter - Seems Kendrick is out and Corassco is too inconsistent. That leaves Park and Happ who are both pitching well. It is a tough decision, but Park has good numbers in the Bull Pen and Happ has very little experience in the pen. On the other hand Park is doing very well and Happ would be a well needed left-hander in the pen.

Hamels elbow issues - Is it normal spring pain or Hamels hypo-condriac panic? Here's hoping it is either.

Jimmy is looking really good at the classic.

Follow-ups

After my posting yesterday about the prospects Donald and Mayberry, I have read a few articles on the same subject. One stated that Manual has been in 40 years worth of Spring camps and one thing he learned was to not make rash judgements after just 11 games. So maybe I was jumping the gun yesterday, saying these 2 should be on the roster.

Another article mentioned that Stairs roster spot may be in jeopardy, and Stairs shrugged his shoulders and said he has been around long enough not to worry about such things and they know what I can do. It also sounded like he is OK with retirement. His plans are to become a Manager or hitting coach in the big leagues. (I think Coste has said the same)

A third article was asking if Worth is really an every-day player. I also ask this question - because he cannot hit Righties very well. The article was mentioning if it makes sense to platoon Jenkins and Worth in right field. I guess it makes sense to hit Jenkins against tough righties.

Another mentioned that most likely Mayberry and Donald will start in AAA to get 4 at bats every game and not sit the bench in the majors. Makes sense I guess - I was thinking maybe they are looking at Donald as a replacement for Feliz after this season, and maybe Mayberry for a replacement for Ibanez after next season.

Nice Problem

Well, I am starting to believe that Mayberry and Donald need to make this team, at least until they cool off. I guess you have to wonder if they can do this as a pinch hitters off the bench, but I think it is worth a try.
Mayberrys' road blocks of course are Jenkins and Stairs, both of whom have their flaws. Jenkins, if you go by last year, has the very low batting average and did not come through in the clutch. He is also only hitting .200 in the Spring. Stairs, hitting just .222 in the spring, is a one dimensional player who can't even play the outfield any more. Mayberry can play a couple outfield positions, apparently has some power and can also run well.
Donald is leading the team with a .379 average and can play the 2 positions of the surgical patients on the team(2nd and 3rd). His competition of course is Bruntlett, who plays all 4 infield positions and is adding center field to his left field play from last year as well as Dobbs, the best pinch hitter in the league last year. I think Donald will have a hard time making the team.

So what makes a good bench player? In my opinion, I feel a high batting average is most important. Hoping for a Home run at exactly the right time is pie in the sky thinking. To me a consistent high batting average gets you the hits needed at the right times more often.
In my way of thinking, Donald and Mayberry make the team in the places of Jenkins and Stairs. I would not expect the Phils to eat another large salary(Eaton) like Jenkins again though.
It is just a shame though, that many players productive years are spent in the minors like Howard and Utley were. Oh well, I guess I have to wait till I become the GM.

Rollins

I was watching the World Baseball Classic(WBC) last night for a few innings and I realized I don't have a lot of interest in the games. I mean, sure I want the USA to win, but I have a hard time watching an entire game like I can with the Phils. It is very similar to spring training games, I find them hard to watch from beginning to end. Anyway, as I watched the game Rollins had just been pulled after going 2 for 3 to allow Jeter to play a little. The broadcasters were interviewing Rollins, and during the interview, Dunn hits a home run. Rollins stopped what he was saying and gave a little play-by-play. It was interesting and the broadcasters were just in love with Jimmy after he left. They followed him in the dugout for the next inning or two. At first Rollins was retelling his interview to Dunn and someone else. You could see him holding a fake mike and he gestured the track of the home run and joking with Dunn. After he was done with Dunn(haha) they followed him dancing in the dugout, he danced all the way from one end to the other to get a drink of water and back again. I mean he kept at it until I felt embarrassed for him. It looked like the coaches and other players were trying to ignore him and felt like saying "Go Away". I guess the moral is - Jimmy is real loose right now - good for the Phils.

Game Pause

Let's review the spring action so far.
Pitching wise - it has gone pretty well, Most of the roster pitchers have done well. I guess the only questions so far would be a bad outing by Carrasco and from Kendrick.
Hitting is average at best - We have seen some good at bats by Howard and Ibanez and by Mayberry. The rest of the starting 8 seem to be hitting under average or just slinging one hit in now and then.
Bull pen has not really done much pitching yet this spring

Interesting news is coming out about some injuries. Seems Rollins is hurt and has been hurt since the World Series. He is still playing for the World Baseball classic team.
Werth, Coste, and Durbin are almost recovered and hope to play in the next few days.
Utley is taking fielding and batting practice, but has not yet set a date for a return.

This is More Like it

Sorry for the delay, but I had a busy weekend, and 12 inches of snow to deal with yesterday. As "Philshats" mentioned in a comment, "They came out Swinging" over the last 3 games. Bruntlett(4 hits/3 rbis), Howard(3/4), Ibanez(2/2), Mayberry(4/4), Paulino 2/1), Donald(1/2), Rollins(2/1), Victorino(1/1), Dobbs(1/1), Jenkins(1/0), Stairs(1/0), Ruiz(1/0).
Pitching was up and down: Happ(3 inn/2runs), Corassco(3/5), Myers(3/2), Park(3/1), Kendrick(3/1), Eyre(1/1.
I saw some numbers from the "B" game yesterday:
Moyer went 3 innings - no runs
Blanton went 4 innings - no runs

Weehend thoughts:
Seems like Howard is doing ok with 2 homers.
Ibanez is looking good (it may be scary how many Rbi's he may have this year)
The big surprise is Mayberry - he is knocking in some runs, expect him to be the first position player called up from the minors if there is an injury.
I understand there was an error in center field by Bruntlett that shook Corassco up.
This is why he will start in the minors, but be the first called up due to a pitcher injury.

This is Getting Monotonous

Three games and 3 Non-Roster pitcher losses. The good news of course, is that the roster pitchers are doing pretty well. Yesterday they did not have any roster starting pitchers pitch, only Romero and Madson pitched. Romero had a bit of a control problem with 3 walks and a run in 2 innings. Madson had a scoreless inning pitched. To belabor the point Roster pitchers are pitching at a 1.80 ERA and the Non-roster pitchers are pitching at a 13.20 ERA. Nuf said. Hitting wise it was ugly again. Shane had a couple of hits and Ibanez knocked in a run. I'm guessing they will put a better game together on Saturday since they are playing the American league champs Tampa-Bay and Pat Burrell. I hear the place is sold out for the game.

Just Another Game

Seems the second game ended just like the first game, a 6-2 loss. As I mentioned yesterday, the important thing is the major league roster pitchers and how they did.
Carassco and Happ both pitched 2 innings each and yeilded no runs. Carassco also had 3 strikeouts. Very good pitching lines for the roster players. Hitting wize it was a pretty weak effort as Rollins, Donald, and Howard all went 0-3.
All-in-all it is going ok so far, the pitchers are doing well and the hitters are a little weak. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

Finaly a Game to Talk About

Well, the first spring training game. At least we have something to talk about, even if it doesn't matter. My theory on spring training games is to look at the starting pitchers line and not much else matters. Obviously over the bulk of the spring training games, you want to see the starting 8 hit well, but game to game it does not make a big difference. The starters are in the games for only 2-3 at bats. In yesterdays game Moyer pitched 2 innings with no runs - excelent. Blanton pitched 1 inning with 1 run - not great. The rest of the relievers gave up the game and that is the essence of spring games, these players will not be on the 25 man roster, and thus do not count. Not much news from the hitters, Ibanez and Mayberry had rbi's and Jenkins was 1 for 1. You may notice over the season, I like to blame the losses on particular players or managers, or coaches. I am thinking of keeping a count of those people responsible for losses during the regular season. As hard as it is to say this after a world series win, I always believed Charlie Manual was responsible for 10 losses a year. His third base coaches were also responsible for many losses over the last few years. Chalk this loss up to non-roster bullpen players.

Finally 2008 Relievers vs. Career

Checking the proposed 2009 relievers vs. their Career averages shows the following:
Name	ERA	Wins	Losses	Saves
Lidge-2008	1.95	2	0	41
Career	3.15	5	4	31
Madson-2008	3.05	4	2	1
Career	4.20	6	4	1
Durbin-2008	2.87	5	4	1
Career	5.29	7	7	1
Romero-2008	2.75	5	5	1
Career	4.14	3	2	1
Condrey-2008	3.26	3	4	1
Career	4.32	2	2	1
Eyre-2008	4.21	5	0	0
Career	3.50	2	2	0
Totals-2008	3.01	21	17	45
Career	4.12	25	21	35

WOW!
This is worse than I expected. The entire bullpen over-achieved in 2008. I guess that is why they were the best bull pen in the majors last year. It seems they have no place to go - but down :-(

Bench Players

Lets take a quick look at the bench players 2008 season vs. Career averages - I don't expect a revelation from their numbers, but we will see.

Dobbs Avg. HR's Rbis
2008 .301 9 40
Career .266 5 40

Bruntlett
2008 .217 2 15
Career .246 3 17

Jenkins
2008 .246 9 29
Career .277 13 42

Stairs
2008 .252 13 49
Career .266 17 61

Paulino
2008 .212 2 18
Career .286 5 18

Coste
2008 .263 9 36
Career .309 10 48

Lets put all the numbers together
Totals
2008 .249 44 185
Career .275 53 226

WOW!
I am shocked, I thought with Dobbs great year, The bench would be worse in 2009. It seems the other 5 players are all under their career averages, and we can expect better in 2009. Looking forward to breaking down the bullpen next (there is no way they can be better in 2009 - Right?)

Pitchers - 2008 vs. Average

Ok
After seeing the 8 position players were significantly below their career averages as a group, it is time to look at the Starting 5 pitchers. For this analysis I will actually do 6 pitchers since we are not sure yet if Happ or Park will win the 5th spot.

Hamels Wins Losses Percent Era
2008 14 10 .583 3.09
Career 24 13 .649 3.43

Meyers
2008 10 13 .435 4.55
Average 59 47 .557 4.37

Moyer
2008 16 7 .696 3.71
Average 56 60 .483 4.46

Blanton
2008 9 12 .429 4.68
Average 42 34 .553 4.18

Park
2008 4 4 .435 3.40
Average 23 22 .511 5.33

Happ
2008 1 1 .500 4.55
No previous stats

So let's combine them
2008 54 47 .535 4.00
Average 205 177 .537 4.35

Conclusion
It seems the Starting Pitching staff was pretty much right in line with their Career(Last 5 years) averages. The winning percentage was slightly under, but the ERA was also under.
We will need a repeat performance in 2009 to make another run.

Phillies - 2008 vs. Average

I wanted to do a quick comparison of the 2008 performances vs. the players career averages. For the most part, I will be considering the last 5 years as the averages, since it does not make sense to compare say Jamie Moyer to his youthful numbers. Today I will be starting with the 8 position players.

Howard Avg. HR rbi
2008 .251 48 146
Avg .279 51 144

Utley
2008 .292 33 104
Avg .306 29 103

Rollins
2008 .277 11 59
Avg .277 18 73

Feliz
2008 .249 14 58
Avg .256 21 84

Ibanez
2008 .293 23 110
Avg .290 22 95

Victorino
2008 .293 14 58
Avg .284 9 46

Werth
2008 .273 24 67
Avg .263 20 67

Ruiz
2008 .219 4 31
Avg .260 6 59

Lots of numbers, but I think it is striking that the starting 8 were significantly below their season averages. Let's combine the numbers.

2008 .268 21 79
Avg .277 22 93

That is 8 players under average by an average of 10 points.
Under average by an average of 14 rbi's per player.
HR's over by 1 per player.
I say that is significant, this starting 8 will do better in 2009. Whoo Hoo!!